The EU, a dethroned Prince?
Markus Formel/ February 6 2021
( 6 min. read)
A year ago the European project was heading for the first place in the echelons of the world of politics. The United Chaos of Donald Trump and the never-ending Brexit talks with the United Kingdom resulted in a power-vacuum of the standard superpowers, which the EU was happy to replace. However, the first dents in the European tent had started to appear. The bleak response to the Hong Kong security law and the Uighur deportations only raised the finger of European diplomats, with few condemning tweets and press releases. The poisoning of Alexey Navalny and his detention and sentence of 3.5 years is, as of today, only being met with a raised finger, press releases and threat of sanctions. In the meanwhile, the pipeline connecting Russia and Germany - Nord Stream 2 - is being happily completed near the shore of Denmark.
Then came the pandemic. The EU was the last to start vaccinating in the Western world. Its slow approval of the vaccines and slow vaccination in Western Europe caused an outburst of emotions of its citizens. While the EU´s vaccination has entered the club the UK and the US were far ahead. And then it came to the affair AstraZeneca vs. Ursula VdL; where Ursula von der Layen accused the company of not supplying enough jabs for their European customers, and thus, violating the terms of the contract. However, the defence of AstraZeneca is hard to dispute, as they have indeed written in their contract a “best reasonable efforts” clause, which gave the European Commission only a promise that they would try to supply enough, but is not obliged by any date. Many would not have thought that the champion of free trade would ever restrict exports. However, now the tables have turned, a proposal hit the desk and was later approved. It restricts the export of vaccines made in the EU to more than 100 countries (Politico, 2021).
A few days ago, Hans Spahn, a health minister of Germany, came forward with the information that they would also be welcoming of the Russian and Chinese vaccines. Vaccines from Russia and China are already used in more than a dozen countries, and will most notably be used in the Balkans (Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Bosnia), where the EU has claimed to help and promised to financially aid the acquisition of vaccines, however to this day these countries have not received a single one. While these countries have looked towards Europe, Serbia has looked towards Russia and China. And it worked. Mid-January a plane containing one million jabs from China arrived in Serbia. Sino-Russian vaccine diplomacy could give a painful punch to the image of the EU in the world.
Chinese and Russian leaders, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping
Europe moved towards strategic autonomy in the diplomatic questions, drifting apart from trans-Atlantic relations and tried establishing its diplomatic foot in the World. The pandemic had dismantled this paradigm. European unity crushed into the wall. The alleged French “no” to increase its position on Pfizer/BioNTech jab, based on European balance, while supporting French-based Sanofi was only a tip of the iceberg. Then came the purchase of vaccines by member states and the whole fog of “unity and solidarity” disappeared. And in this wild west of-a-Europe, Hungary started to inject the Russian and Chinese jab. So much for a strong and united Europe. And let's not forget about the corona-bonds.
The “hamiltonian” moment, the moment which is to unite Europe. ‘Next Generation Europe’, as it is nicely named, is an economic relief package, which is worth 750 billion Euros and is funded by the whole EU. It is supposed to be financed by new taxes - namely a carbon tax and a new digital tax. What is necessary to point out is that the majority of this money will be handed out to the worst fiscally performing nations in Europe - Italy, France and Spain. Which for a long time did not follow the rules of fiscal responsibility laid down by the pact of stability and growth, and have uncompetitive economies, a large tax burden and were not able to pull significant reforms in the last decades. And that is not all, the European exiles - Hungary and Poland - were able to strong-arm the EU into easing rule of law requirements. Once again, Europe is trying to cure itself with more money, with more handouts and it is doing it while ignoring the principles it has been built upon.
The slow shaking of the European Ground has already started. In Norway, the Centre Party has surged in polls promising a new Canada-style free-trade agreement with the EU. In the UK, pollsters found out that there is still majority support for Brexit. And it is Brexit, which can shake the European Project from the ground up. On the isles, vaccination has started earlier and the speed, compared to Europe, is immense. At the same time, as the quicker vaccination gains political capital for the Conservative government’s Brexit deal and the British-European Split, the UK has expressed the will to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTTP) - a free-trade block comprised of Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand and the states of south-east Asia. And possibly through this deal, the most important trade agreement of all, the one with the United States. While Europe has its problems, within its borders, others are not sleeping and diplomatic moves are crucial. Especially in the post-covid world, where the deck of the old times will be re-shuffled. And Europe can not afford actions like those of Emmanuel Macron, which blocked the EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement. Where one hesitates, others take advantage.
Looking at the state of Europe, our current and future partners may look elsewhere. The EU divided, indebted (see my commentary about the state of Europe's economy here) and struggling with vaccination. The principles and values which the EU holds dear can crumble to pressure from authoritarian regimes, which will provide economic ties, loans and infrastructure projects in return for looking away and voting differently. European vaccine protectionism can only lead to one thing and that is the destruction of European credibility. The EU has been seen as a trustworthy partner so long as deals are reached and ratified. The sudden changes send a signal that if a serious problem occurs, backs will be turned looking inwards looking to the continent. Europe needs to sort itself out of the pandemic and needs to rethink its way in the geopolitical arena because if it will not do so, it will be left behind as a little boy standing next to grown-ups with his mouth agape and everybody laughing at him.
